The keynote at the start of the day clearly showed the scale of the challenge facing the Netherlands, and how climate change adds a further layer of complexity. In this context, better-substantiated cost estimates are of particular value.

Our session was introduced by Chris Vriends from HWBP. He explained how, last year, HWBP issued a market call to explore how AI could be applied in a useful and responsible way. Three parties were selected as a result of that exploration, and during Dijkwerkersdag we had the opportunity to present the results of this pilot.

In this pilot, we examined whether early-stage cost estimates could be better substantiated by using comparable projects, project-specific context, and machine learning.

During the session, we showed how the RCF-AI approach helps make cost estimates not only more accurate, but also easier to explain.

The results presented show that this approach offers clear added value. In the validation, we found that the error in early-stage cost estimates could be reduced by approximately half compared with the initial estimates made by project teams.

In addition, the method provides insight into the factors that truly drive costs, the most comparable projects, and the range of possible outcomes.

During the presentation, we also demonstrated the tooling.

We showed how experts can use data-driven insights to gain a clearer understanding of cost drivers, project-specific context, and the cost distribution of comparable projects.

More information about this pilot, the RCF-AI tool, the validation method, and the governance of the system can be found below:

Next steps

The session prompted many questions and active engagement from the audience. For us, this confirmed that there is clear interest in practical follow up.

We envision the next phase as a collaboration with interested water authorities, in which we analyse potential outliers, add additional drivers where needed, and further validate the approach for each water authority. If successful, this approach could develop into a structural solution that is updated periodically and used continuously for new projects.

Interested in discussing this further or joining a potential frontrunner group? Please feel free to contact us.

Het bericht HWBP Dijkwerkersdag: better cost estimations with reference classes and AI verscheen eerst op asset mechanics.

Multiple stories and experiences about risk management from Almere, Haarlem and Utrecht, e.g. on positioning, growing IT risks and data driven risk management.

Asset Mechanics was happy to share some best practise methods in data-driven risk management,reference class forecastingand its application in large projects and land development projects.

This was a follow up of the June 20th 2025 theme session for controllers, financial directors of 100k+ municipalities and government and VNG representatives in the Jaarbeurs convention-centre in Utrecht.

Good to note increased interest in ways to deal with risks!

Het bericht Theme session Risk Management – 100k+ municipalities and VNG verscheen eerst op asset mechanics.

This project is of particular interest as it shows how context based risk models combined with trade cost projections lead to the most efficient global equity index replication possible. It was a privilege to work together with an experienced APG team and different software providers like FactSet, Barra, ITG and Axioma.

Het bericht APG Equity Index Rebalance verscheen eerst op asset mechanics.