Better decisions when uncertainty, estimate error and downside risk matter
We help public-sector organisations, infrastructure programmes and financial institutions improve estimates and risk decisions with AI/ML-enhanced Reference Class Forecasting, grounded in data-driven risk analysis.
Traditional risk assessments often miss context
Many estimates and risk assessments still rely too heavily on internal assumptions, static benchmarks or limited historical comparison. That makes it harder to see downside risk clearly, especially when project context and macroeconomic conditions matter.
Bring the outside view into risk decisions
Our approach combines reference-class evidence, quantitative modelling and out-of-sample validation to strengthen Reference Class Forecasting with AI/ML. Using explainable AI, we identify which comparable cases, macroeconomic context and underlying drivers matter most.
- Reference-class evidence
- AI/ML-enhanced forecasting
- Out-of-sample validation
- Explainable AI and visible drivers
- Risk assessments grounded in context
From assumptions to defensible risk decisions
This helps organisations move beyond subjective assumptions and produce more transparent, more robust and more defensible risk assessments that reflect project and macroeconomic context.
More transparent
See which comparable cases, macro conditions and drivers shape the risk outcome.
Enabled by explainable AI and reference-class evidence.
More robust
Ground estimates and risk assessments in quantitative modelling and out-of-sample validation.
Built to perform beyond in-sample fit.
More defensible
Support high-stakes decisions with explainable outputs, documented assumptions and observed performance.
Designed for governance, challenge and scrutiny.
Where this approach creates value
Large-project cost and risk estimation
Improve estimates and contingency decisions for projects where estimate error is costly.
Land development risk
Assess development risk in context rather than through static assumptions alone.
Interest rate and inflation risk
Analyse risk under changing macroeconomic conditions over time.
Context-driven forecasting for public decision making
Support public investment and policy decisions with more context-aware risk insight.
Built for transparency, validation and explainability
We publish model documentation and validation material to clarify assumptions, limitations and observed performance.
Out-of-sample validation
Explainable AI
Observed performance
Transparent model documentation
See if this improves your estimates and risk decisions
Explore whether AI/ML-enhanced Reference Class Forecasting can strengthen your decisions where uncertainty, estimate error and downside risk matter.
Use Cases in practice
See where AI/ML-enhanced Reference Class Forecasting creates value in practice, from large-project cost estimation to land development, interest rate risk and context-driven public decision making.
Loan Portfolio Interest Risk
We illustrate how to obtain a concrete risk estimate for a loan portfolio that is to be refinanced in the future with the so called ‘Value at Risk’ method and how the certainty level impacts its estimation.
Land Development Risk
The following use case explores how one municipality improves the process of risk measurement on a portfolio of land development projects by using context dependent risk estimates
Project Risk
How would you estimate the investment risk and the risk on the operating result of a project? E.g. a public outdoor swimming facility or an art museum. Let’s explore the risks with a quantitative risk analysis.
Products, tools and decision support
Explore our products and services for context-dependent risk assessment, including AI/ML-enhanced Reference Class Forecasting, risk tools and decision support grounded in transparent validation and observed performance.
Insights
Reference Class Forecasting
Learn about the basics of reference class forecasting and its role in predicting expectation and risks. Discover how it improves risk forecasts and project success.
Risk Aversion
Discover the psychology of loss and risk aversion in decision-making. Explore how humans avoid negative impacts and uncertainty.
Interest Rate Risk
Explore the main factors that need to be considered when calculating the refinancing costs.
Model Validation
In this series of articles we analyze the model performance of four interest rate models and show how context adds value.
- Solvency II: EU capital requirements for insurance sector
- Wtp: new pension funds regulation in The Netherlands
- BASE method: statistical method, no context dependence
- REGIME-BASED method: context dependent statistical method
Finally, let’s put these models together and select the optimal risk model.
Land price risk in context
We analyse historical land prices in the Netherlands and use a context-driven regime-based model to forecast the risk.
Our team
If you wish to receive more information or schedule a (video) call please send us aRequest for Information
Our way of work & values
question assumptions
search for main risk drivers
take context into account
iterative goal oriented
focus on details
take ownership
integrity, humbleness
open communication
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